Zero Tolerance: Repression and Political Violence on China's New Silk Road
(with Philip Potter)
Cambridge University Press, forthcoming
What is the nature of Uyghur political violence and how has it evolved over time? Why does the Chinese government promptly highlight some domestic terrorist incidents in the official media, but acknowledges others slowly or not at all? What explains the radical strategic change in China’s Xinjiang policy? What is the strategic calculation that has underpinned China’s counterterrorism foreign policies? What implications do this rather small-scale conflict and seemingly excessive governmental responses have for world politics? Zero Tolerance: Repression and Political Violence on China’s New Silk Road seeks to shed light on these questions with an eye toward both shifting scholarly attention to these understudied issues and preparing policymakers for events that could come to occupy a good deal of their time and attention in the coming years. Drawing on original and comprehensive data on Uyghur political violence, official media coverage, government security expenditures, and joint military exercises between PLA and foreign forces, Potter and Wang explore these dynamics with rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis. They demonstrate that competing priorities in terms of maintaining stability, consolidating ideological unity, cultivating legitimacy, protecting overseas interests, and minimizing blowback from international terrorism have shaped the government’s policies at home and abroad. One that is characterized with zero tolerance of violence, harsh repression, sophisticated media control, and selective international military cooperation.
(with Philip Potter)
Cambridge University Press, forthcoming
What is the nature of Uyghur political violence and how has it evolved over time? Why does the Chinese government promptly highlight some domestic terrorist incidents in the official media, but acknowledges others slowly or not at all? What explains the radical strategic change in China’s Xinjiang policy? What is the strategic calculation that has underpinned China’s counterterrorism foreign policies? What implications do this rather small-scale conflict and seemingly excessive governmental responses have for world politics? Zero Tolerance: Repression and Political Violence on China’s New Silk Road seeks to shed light on these questions with an eye toward both shifting scholarly attention to these understudied issues and preparing policymakers for events that could come to occupy a good deal of their time and attention in the coming years. Drawing on original and comprehensive data on Uyghur political violence, official media coverage, government security expenditures, and joint military exercises between PLA and foreign forces, Potter and Wang explore these dynamics with rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis. They demonstrate that competing priorities in terms of maintaining stability, consolidating ideological unity, cultivating legitimacy, protecting overseas interests, and minimizing blowback from international terrorism have shaped the government’s policies at home and abroad. One that is characterized with zero tolerance of violence, harsh repression, sophisticated media control, and selective international military cooperation.
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The evolution of political violence in Xinjiang can be delineated into three phases: rebellion (1949-1958); civil resistance (1977-1989); and terrorism (1990-2014).
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The relationship between violence and China’s international condition
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This figure demonstrates that attacks are more likely to occur when the Chinese government is facing international headwinds (based on a Negative Binomial Model). It suggests that militants seek to leverage external pressures on Beijing.
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Probability of Non-Reporting of Violence
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Timely report of domestic violence in Chinese official media is likely to occur only when both domestic and international conditions facing the government are favorable (based on a Cox Model).
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Response of Violence to Securitization
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This plot demonstrates that an increase in Public Security Expenditures per capital generates a rapid but brief negative response from Political Violent Events (PVEs) . However, this initial negative response quickly diminishes. It suggests that repression has been ineffective in curbing violence, especially in the longer term (based on a Vector Autoregression Model).
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Types of PLA Joint Military Exercises (JMEs): 2002-2016
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Counterterrorism Joint Military Exercises (CT-JMEs) have become the pillar of the internationalization of PLA.
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Predicted Number of CT-JME Days
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China tends to spend more days on Counterterrorism Joint Military Exercises (CT-JMEs) with partners where terrorist threats are high and where China also has significant economic interests (based on a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model). It suggests that China has been cautious in approaching international counterterrorism cooperation, seeking to minimize the risk of blowback from internationally oriented militant groups.
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